Hi everybody, and welcome back to another look at draft-eligible players for the 2018 NHL Draft in Dallas. It continues to amaze me the amount of depth, potential, and differing play styles that the defensemen in this draft have. One of these days, I'll discuss a forward (most likely Vitali Kravtsov), but today we're going to look at another high-end potential defenseman.
Today we look at Bode Wilde.
Right-shooting defenseman for US National U18 Team, USDP
6'2" 196 lbs
59 games, 12G 29A 41 points
His draft rankings as of today are:
HockeyProspect - #13
ISS Hockey - #20
FutureConsiderations - #11
McKeens - #15
NHL Central Scouting - #17 (NA Skaters)
Today we turn to a defenseman who has one of the best set of physical tools in the entire draft class from defensemen. Bode Wilde is a big, strong defenseman who skates extremely well, has a strong shot, and is committed to attend the University of Michigan for the next season after playing in the USNTDP (just like high-end d-men like Jacob Trouba and Zach Werenski in recent years).
Wilde is projected to go right around the area that the Devils pick, so he's definitely a name to keep in mind. I know I've been wrong in my first round selection predictions for the Devils and I may regret saying this, but there are some aspects of Wilde's game that really do concern me, and I'll get into them later on. All in all though, Wilde has the potential to be the second best d-man in this draft class. The skills are there, and he's done a fantastic job putting them together. In many ways, he's a polished product.
Offensively, Wilde is absolutely stellar. Combining his blistering bomb of a shot at the point with his ability (that will transfer really well to the NHL in my opinion) to not only keep the puck low - to allow deflections and rebounds - but also finding lanes to get the shot through, make Wilde one of the biggest threats from the blue-line. Wilde also has excellent passing, both in the offensive zone and on the break-out from his own defensive zone. His good vision helps him with this. One of the areas he can improve on is his decision-making *(keep this in mind)* and not take as many risks in the offensive zone with making deep attacks past the goal line. These risks, while they may be mitigated on a more structurally-sound team, will be something Wilde needs to work on. However, that being said, when he's past the center-ice line, Wilde is about as close to a complete package as you can get.
Defensively, Wilde reminds me a lot of a Rasmus Ristolainen type player, where he's not that great defensively, but he's pretty physical so it's a bit covered up. That's not to say Wilde is bad defensively, he's just very inconsistent in that aspect. He uses his frame and physicality to shut down opponents along the boards and is quite nasty in the corners. He is strong enough to separate puck-carriers from the puck. When employed on the penalty kill, Wilde excels as a crease-clearer, and is capable of shutting down top forwards. However, his defensive short-comings have been shown a bit more. This most likely has to do with the fact that he's under a lot of scrutiny being that it's his draft-eligible year. He is committed to University of Michigan for next season, and the NCAA (generally speaking) does a good job of rounding out defensive games. One other aspect of Wilde's defensive play is that he goes for a big hit (stuff like this) pretty often, which isn't bad, but sometimes it puts him out of position. This is another aspect of his game that he'll need to work on. The good news is that his defensive game is raw as opposed to bad, and he has the tools there to improve it.
So here you have a big-bodied, thick-framed, graceful skater, with as much offensive upside as any d-man in the draft (other than Dahlin), who likes to hit, is already playing top-pairing all-situational minutes...why is he projected to go around #17? The biggest concern I have about Wilde's game is that I don't know how good his hockey sense is. He takes so many risks that I don't know if he is comfortable taking risks and needs to tone it down in his development, or whether or not he legitimately doesn't get good reads on plays. Like any young, talented player who's confident in his game, Wilde sometimes tries to do too much, and that's not really a concern I have in the long-run (I had the same concern with Hischier in his draft-eligible year). Wilde is a pretty safe pick in terms of his physical tools will get him into the NHL. Where he really becomes a boom/bust is what he can work on between the ears. I question how well he can process the game at high speeds. Now this could all be wildly unnecessary concerns if he goes out and dominates at the NCAA level next year, but there's definitely some concern on my part. The most frustrating thing is that he doesn't even need to turn into a Lidstrom-like thinker to have definitive top-pairing potential. The hope I have is that he just needs to work on his thinking and decision-making (I have no doubt that the coaching staff at U. Mich will spend quite some time with him in the film room working on this stuff, and the sky is the limit for him.
I'm being overly cautious, and possibly sounding pessimistic (or harsh) about Wilde - I don't mean to be. Players like him scare me a bit because there are games where he absolutely dominates, usually going hand-in-hand with the level of physicality he's playing with, but I'm always worried about the "all tools, no toolbox" potential players. I say this because hockey IQ is very difficult to progress in development, but decision-making can be improved, and the majority of the decision-making he displays are not deal-breakers. I'm just trying to be as honest as possible in my assessment of one of the players that we are very much in the running for at this point. In my opinion the decision-making is a weakness of his game, but if he can make steady improvements over the next few years, and turn it average, the sky is the limit for Wilde. And just to be clear again - perhaps I'm being a bit repetitive, but I'm not trying to imply that Wilde is a dumb hockey player, not in the slightest. The rest of his tools and skills are so high-level or have the potential to be really high-level that this one aspect of his game sticks out. In all reality, his decision-making is a little less than average, and he doesn't have far to go to bring it up to the level that will make him a real threat.
I can only see him needing 2 years at most in the NCAA, and he's very noticeable when he's on the ice (mostly in a good way). It's easy to see why some people are really high on him, and others aren't. Wilde definitely has potential to be a #1 d-man, but could likely end up as a #2 or #3. Some aspects of his game need to be more refined than others, but he could very much end up a top-pairing, two-way, all-situational type defenseman. The skills are all there. There are so many top-end defensemen in this draft that Wilde is a bit overlooked at this point (reminds me a bit of the McAvoy situation from 2016). I may be a bit too harsh in my tone on Wilde in this piece, but I really do think he has potential to be a cornerstone d-man for a team, he has that much potential. All in all, I think the Devils would be thrilled to pick a guy like him.
I'd love to hear your thoughts on Bode Wilde. Thank you so much for reading!
Friday, April 27, 2018
2018 NHL Draft Preview: Nils Lundkvist
Hi everybody, and welcome back to another look at draft-eligible players for the 2018 NHL Draft in Dallas.
Today we look at Nils Lundkvist.
Right-shooting defenseman for Lulea HF, SHL
5'11" 174 lbs
28 games, 2G 3A 5 points
His draft rankings as of today are:
HockeyProspect - #19
ISS Hockey - #NR
FutureConsiderations - #NR
McKeens - #27
NHL Central Scouting - #14 (EU Skaters)
Before we start getting into the more established players that folks may be hearing (guys like Bode Wilde, Jared McIsaac, and others), I wanted to touch on another quiet riser up the draft boards. At this point, Nils Lundkvist is a bit of an off the radar-type pick, but he's been steadily making himself more present in mock drafts and is becoming more of a dark horse first round pick, especially around the 20 spot. Lundkvist recently won the award for best defenseman in the J20 league for the 2017-2018 season (it's a little odd since he spent the majority of the season playing for the SHL club).
It's been interesting to watch Lundkvist's progression throughout the season, because he's been getting a lot more comfortable and confident in his play in the SHL as a 17 year old (this is his first season with the SHL), and as a result has been joining the offensive play much moreso than earlier in the season (not too surprising but it's still enjoyable to watch).
Nils Lundkvist is an excellent skating, puck-moving defenseman. In his first 13 games in the SuperElit U20, he registered 9 points. He is listed at 5'11", but he has a wide, low skating stance so he looks much shorter on the ice. Lundkvist's ability as a playmaker is excellent, and he has a good eye for finding passing lanes. I'll mention this here before I forget: I'm not sure if the points will ever be high-end. He reads the game really well and he is a smart player, but he strikes me as a Matt Niskanen type player - one who is an excellent puck mover and can help his team break out of the zone, and has some excellent offensive tools, but doesn't quite get on the scoreboard all that often. One other thing to note is that if you're on the ice, Lundkvist sees you - almost as if he has eyes in the back of his head. If he knows you're there, he'll find a passing lane to get you the puck...doesn't matter if he's below the goal or needs to make a move around a defending player...he'll get the puck to you. I love the idea of a player with this quick-thinking and quick/effective passing ability finding our big guns in the offensive zone.
Compared to another player in the draft, like Adam Boqvist, Lundkvist's high-end scoring potential is not as refined - that doesn't mean that scouts haven't taken notice of Lundkvist's game...in fact there have been some rumblings that scouts may not see much of a difference between their games in the long run (especially given Lundkvist's play at the U18 Five Nations Tournament). During the U18's earlier this year, Lundkvist took a lot of risks in terms of reads, pinches, etc. in the offensive game. This is not a bad thing, but rather it was his own recognition of his skating ability, and the two-way ability of the forwards in front of him that helped allow him to make those decisions. I'm saying this because I think he would be in a similar situation here under the "Fast, Attacking *Supportive*" system that Hynes runs.
Defensively, Lundkvist is interesting because he is a very smooth and calm defenseman. He is an average defender and relies mostly on his stick work and really good Hockey IQ to make plays. Sometimes he wanders too far away from his post, but he has performed admirably on the defensive side in the SHL this season. He averaged right around 16 minutes per game this season. This included time on ice in all situations, including PK and Powerplay time where Lundkvist continued to show progression, growth, and confidence. Undoubtedly, Lundkvist's defensive play and board/corner play will improve when he adds some lower-body muscle to his frame.
What you're getting in Nils Lundkvist is a player who doesn't need anybody else to break out of his defensive zone, and can gain the offensive zone with ease. It's not too difficult to see why he's really rising up draft boards, because he is the ideal defenseman for the direction the league is going in - great skating, fantastic edgework, high hockey IQ, alert passing, crisp breakouts, etc. The list goes on.
CanucksArmy Blog refers to a threshold called the 51% rule in regards to SHL players and their chances of getting significant time in the NHL.
>Skaters who played in the Swedish Hockey League at 18-years-old or younger with a points per game of at least .09 ended up playing 200 NHL games or more 51% of the time. Even among players with just a handful of games, the rule applied.
Lundkvist meets those standards (and even produced at a higher rate than Erik Brannstom in his draft-eligible season). Granted there are more to a defenseman than points, but Lundkvist is a player that's going to have a lot of value if he continues to progress in the direction he's headed in. All NHL teams are looking for young, right-shooting, mobile, smart defensemen, and Lundqvist is a player that will out-perform his current draft ranking. I wouldn't be surprised if Ray Shero and Paul Castron, once again, rely heavily on the European scouting department and go with what seems like a bit of an off the board pick in Lundkvist at #17. He seems to be a very safe player with very high upside.
I'd love to hear your thoughts on Nils Lundkvist. Thank you for reading!
Today we look at Nils Lundkvist.
Right-shooting defenseman for Lulea HF, SHL
5'11" 174 lbs
28 games, 2G 3A 5 points
His draft rankings as of today are:
HockeyProspect - #19
ISS Hockey - #NR
FutureConsiderations - #NR
McKeens - #27
NHL Central Scouting - #14 (EU Skaters)
Before we start getting into the more established players that folks may be hearing (guys like Bode Wilde, Jared McIsaac, and others), I wanted to touch on another quiet riser up the draft boards. At this point, Nils Lundkvist is a bit of an off the radar-type pick, but he's been steadily making himself more present in mock drafts and is becoming more of a dark horse first round pick, especially around the 20 spot. Lundkvist recently won the award for best defenseman in the J20 league for the 2017-2018 season (it's a little odd since he spent the majority of the season playing for the SHL club).
It's been interesting to watch Lundkvist's progression throughout the season, because he's been getting a lot more comfortable and confident in his play in the SHL as a 17 year old (this is his first season with the SHL), and as a result has been joining the offensive play much moreso than earlier in the season (not too surprising but it's still enjoyable to watch).
Nils Lundkvist is an excellent skating, puck-moving defenseman. In his first 13 games in the SuperElit U20, he registered 9 points. He is listed at 5'11", but he has a wide, low skating stance so he looks much shorter on the ice. Lundkvist's ability as a playmaker is excellent, and he has a good eye for finding passing lanes. I'll mention this here before I forget: I'm not sure if the points will ever be high-end. He reads the game really well and he is a smart player, but he strikes me as a Matt Niskanen type player - one who is an excellent puck mover and can help his team break out of the zone, and has some excellent offensive tools, but doesn't quite get on the scoreboard all that often. One other thing to note is that if you're on the ice, Lundkvist sees you - almost as if he has eyes in the back of his head. If he knows you're there, he'll find a passing lane to get you the puck...doesn't matter if he's below the goal or needs to make a move around a defending player...he'll get the puck to you. I love the idea of a player with this quick-thinking and quick/effective passing ability finding our big guns in the offensive zone.
Compared to another player in the draft, like Adam Boqvist, Lundkvist's high-end scoring potential is not as refined - that doesn't mean that scouts haven't taken notice of Lundkvist's game...in fact there have been some rumblings that scouts may not see much of a difference between their games in the long run (especially given Lundkvist's play at the U18 Five Nations Tournament). During the U18's earlier this year, Lundkvist took a lot of risks in terms of reads, pinches, etc. in the offensive game. This is not a bad thing, but rather it was his own recognition of his skating ability, and the two-way ability of the forwards in front of him that helped allow him to make those decisions. I'm saying this because I think he would be in a similar situation here under the "Fast, Attacking *Supportive*" system that Hynes runs.
Defensively, Lundkvist is interesting because he is a very smooth and calm defenseman. He is an average defender and relies mostly on his stick work and really good Hockey IQ to make plays. Sometimes he wanders too far away from his post, but he has performed admirably on the defensive side in the SHL this season. He averaged right around 16 minutes per game this season. This included time on ice in all situations, including PK and Powerplay time where Lundkvist continued to show progression, growth, and confidence. Undoubtedly, Lundkvist's defensive play and board/corner play will improve when he adds some lower-body muscle to his frame.
What you're getting in Nils Lundkvist is a player who doesn't need anybody else to break out of his defensive zone, and can gain the offensive zone with ease. It's not too difficult to see why he's really rising up draft boards, because he is the ideal defenseman for the direction the league is going in - great skating, fantastic edgework, high hockey IQ, alert passing, crisp breakouts, etc. The list goes on.
CanucksArmy Blog refers to a threshold called the 51% rule in regards to SHL players and their chances of getting significant time in the NHL.
>Skaters who played in the Swedish Hockey League at 18-years-old or younger with a points per game of at least .09 ended up playing 200 NHL games or more 51% of the time. Even among players with just a handful of games, the rule applied.
Lundkvist meets those standards (and even produced at a higher rate than Erik Brannstom in his draft-eligible season). Granted there are more to a defenseman than points, but Lundkvist is a player that's going to have a lot of value if he continues to progress in the direction he's headed in. All NHL teams are looking for young, right-shooting, mobile, smart defensemen, and Lundqvist is a player that will out-perform his current draft ranking. I wouldn't be surprised if Ray Shero and Paul Castron, once again, rely heavily on the European scouting department and go with what seems like a bit of an off the board pick in Lundkvist at #17. He seems to be a very safe player with very high upside.
I'd love to hear your thoughts on Nils Lundkvist. Thank you for reading!
2018 NHL Draft Preview: Evan Bouchard
Hi everybody, and welcome back to another look at draft-eligible players for the 2018 NHL Draft in Dallas.
Today we look at Evan Bouchard.
Right-shooting defenseman for the London Knights, OHL
6'2" 191 lbs
67 games, 25G 62A 87 points
His draft rankings as of today are:
HockeyProspect - #15
ISS Hockey - #6
FutureConsiderations - #10
McKeens - #6
NHL Central Scouting - #4 (NA Skaters)
With a meteoric rise up the draft boards this season, we turn to Evan Bouchard. Before looking at his skillset, the main reason behind Bouchard's rise up the boards is because of the openings left on the London blueline after departures from regulars like Olli Juolevi (went to play pro hockey in Finland) and Victor Mete (played with the Montreal Canadiens), Bouchard had significant opportunity as he found himself slotted in the #1 defenseman position for the Knights. Needless to say, he took the role and ran with it.
Bouchard is a two-way defenseman with good size and skill. He has a fantastic arsenal of shots, be it slap shot, one-timer, wrist shot, etc. He has a great knack of getting the puck to the net. I know there are a lot of buzzwords that are used in draft reports, but what really really impresses me about Bouchard's play is ho poised he is. He is able to bob and weave (not necessarily the best term to use) to open up shooting passing lanes. Bouchard is also extremely smart with his pinches and offensive zone decisions. These skills allow him to be an excellent quarterback on a team's Powerplay. His 87 points were the highest total out of any draft-eligible CHL skaters (first-time eligible), and his 297 registered shots on goal was the 2nd highest in the OHL. I should also note that while his numbers are stellar, they are likely the result of the huge minutes he plays. There is a reason he plays so many minutes, and his offensive skills are highly polished and elite, but it's important to know the context surrounding numbers, especially for defensemen.
Bouchard is no slouch on the defensive side either. He's been responsible for playing in all situations on the ice for the Knights. In fact, while time on ice isn't an officially recorded stat in the CHL, reports have him playing upwards of 30 minutes a night for London. Defensively, Bouchard maintains good gap control and is able to keep opposing forwards out of the dangerous areas of the ice, for the most part. His defensive zone positioning is excellent. He uses his long reach to help this as well. However, this is where two of Bouchard's most significant areas of improvement are exemplified: his average skating speed and defensive zone decisiveness. Bouchard isn't a poor skating by any means - in fact his overall mobility is excellent -, but I do think that if he doesn't try to get faster, it will significantly hamper him, especially as the NHL continues to get faster. There are a few occasions where faster opposing forwards can breeze by him. He tries to limit this by using his long reach and it works for the most part, but I don't think that will cut it in the NHL, and it may even lead to penalties. His skating is good enough to keep up with the play, backskate, and maintain gaps throughout the play, but this is an area where he can definitely improve. In terms of defensive zone decision-making, Bouchard sometimes has a tendency of puck-chasing as well as knowing what to do when he gets the puck in the slot in the defensive zone, or directly in front of the goalie. I'm definitely not discounting the idea that maybe this is fatigue catching up to him, but with some improved mobility, and more refined decisions in the defensive zone, Bouchard has the potential to be a fantastic defenseman at the NHL level.
Evan Bouchard can play either defensive side, and does really well either way. I like him better on the right side, but that's just my personal preference. Bouchard is is also heralded as practically a "one-man breakout machine". He's stellar outlet passes and decision-making with the puck on his own blue-line will be the biggest asset in his transition to the professional game. Bouchard is a highly-polished offensive defenseman with a stellar defensive game. He is likely to go very high in the draft in June. I can't commend his passing and vision coming out of his own zone enough. One other components that he needs to improve include, like for any young prospect- consistency in his game. Bouchard plays a very pro-ready style game and doesn't shy away from physical contact.
Bouchard has top-pairing potential and has a very high floor as well. He will likely go in the early teens, so I'm writing about him just for the off chance the he does fall to #17. A stylistic comparison for Bouchard would be John Carlson. There are very few holes in Bouchard's game, and he is a very good combination of strength, good wingspan, offensive output, and defensive zone breakouts. What we have here is a player that could step onto an NHL roster as soon as October.
I'd love to hear your thoughts on Evan Bouchard. Thanks for reading!
Today we look at Evan Bouchard.
Right-shooting defenseman for the London Knights, OHL
6'2" 191 lbs
67 games, 25G 62A 87 points
His draft rankings as of today are:
HockeyProspect - #15
ISS Hockey - #6
FutureConsiderations - #10
McKeens - #6
NHL Central Scouting - #4 (NA Skaters)
With a meteoric rise up the draft boards this season, we turn to Evan Bouchard. Before looking at his skillset, the main reason behind Bouchard's rise up the boards is because of the openings left on the London blueline after departures from regulars like Olli Juolevi (went to play pro hockey in Finland) and Victor Mete (played with the Montreal Canadiens), Bouchard had significant opportunity as he found himself slotted in the #1 defenseman position for the Knights. Needless to say, he took the role and ran with it.
Bouchard is a two-way defenseman with good size and skill. He has a fantastic arsenal of shots, be it slap shot, one-timer, wrist shot, etc. He has a great knack of getting the puck to the net. I know there are a lot of buzzwords that are used in draft reports, but what really really impresses me about Bouchard's play is ho poised he is. He is able to bob and weave (not necessarily the best term to use) to open up shooting passing lanes. Bouchard is also extremely smart with his pinches and offensive zone decisions. These skills allow him to be an excellent quarterback on a team's Powerplay. His 87 points were the highest total out of any draft-eligible CHL skaters (first-time eligible), and his 297 registered shots on goal was the 2nd highest in the OHL. I should also note that while his numbers are stellar, they are likely the result of the huge minutes he plays. There is a reason he plays so many minutes, and his offensive skills are highly polished and elite, but it's important to know the context surrounding numbers, especially for defensemen.
Bouchard is no slouch on the defensive side either. He's been responsible for playing in all situations on the ice for the Knights. In fact, while time on ice isn't an officially recorded stat in the CHL, reports have him playing upwards of 30 minutes a night for London. Defensively, Bouchard maintains good gap control and is able to keep opposing forwards out of the dangerous areas of the ice, for the most part. His defensive zone positioning is excellent. He uses his long reach to help this as well. However, this is where two of Bouchard's most significant areas of improvement are exemplified: his average skating speed and defensive zone decisiveness. Bouchard isn't a poor skating by any means - in fact his overall mobility is excellent -, but I do think that if he doesn't try to get faster, it will significantly hamper him, especially as the NHL continues to get faster. There are a few occasions where faster opposing forwards can breeze by him. He tries to limit this by using his long reach and it works for the most part, but I don't think that will cut it in the NHL, and it may even lead to penalties. His skating is good enough to keep up with the play, backskate, and maintain gaps throughout the play, but this is an area where he can definitely improve. In terms of defensive zone decision-making, Bouchard sometimes has a tendency of puck-chasing as well as knowing what to do when he gets the puck in the slot in the defensive zone, or directly in front of the goalie. I'm definitely not discounting the idea that maybe this is fatigue catching up to him, but with some improved mobility, and more refined decisions in the defensive zone, Bouchard has the potential to be a fantastic defenseman at the NHL level.
Evan Bouchard can play either defensive side, and does really well either way. I like him better on the right side, but that's just my personal preference. Bouchard is is also heralded as practically a "one-man breakout machine". He's stellar outlet passes and decision-making with the puck on his own blue-line will be the biggest asset in his transition to the professional game. Bouchard is a highly-polished offensive defenseman with a stellar defensive game. He is likely to go very high in the draft in June. I can't commend his passing and vision coming out of his own zone enough. One other components that he needs to improve include, like for any young prospect- consistency in his game. Bouchard plays a very pro-ready style game and doesn't shy away from physical contact.
Bouchard has top-pairing potential and has a very high floor as well. He will likely go in the early teens, so I'm writing about him just for the off chance the he does fall to #17. A stylistic comparison for Bouchard would be John Carlson. There are very few holes in Bouchard's game, and he is a very good combination of strength, good wingspan, offensive output, and defensive zone breakouts. What we have here is a player that could step onto an NHL roster as soon as October.
I'd love to hear your thoughts on Evan Bouchard. Thanks for reading!
2018 NHL Draft Preview: K'Andre Miller
With the Devils' fantastic season closing out, my attention now turns solely to the upcoming draft on June 22-23 in Dallas. We still have two prospects playing in their respective CHL conference championship series, and I'll keep you updated on them, but over the next few months I'll be posting write-ups about draft-eligible players. While our draft placement is still undetermined today, we should be somewhere in the 17-20 spot, so I'll go from there. My philosophy is always draft Best Player Available, and chances are it will be a defenseman, so I will focus mostly on defensemen, but there are some really interesting forwards that should be available around our pick as well.
Anyways, now to the main event...let's talk about K'Andre Miller.
6'3" 206 lbs
53 games, 8G 19A 27 points
His draft rankings as of today are:
HockeyProspect - #16
ISS Hockey - #30
FutureConsiderations - #25
McKeens - #17
NHL Central Scouting - #23 (NA Skaters)
I wanted to start with Miller because he's just such an interesting prospect. He was a forward throughout his entire career until the 2015/2016 season, and he is still a pretty raw prospect. He has some hiccups and makes mistakes with his reads regarding passing lanes and pinching up in the neutral zone, however I do chalk this up to him still learning the position.
The first thing you notice about Miller, besides how big of a human being he is, is his incredible skating. This isn't even one of those "he's a good skater for his size" type cliches either. The guy can skate. He likes to rush the puck up the ice and be a team's 4th forward in situations (per this article/interview with him). All aspects of his skating are excellent - acceleration, edgework, agility, etc. Combine this with his powerful stride and strong lower-body, and you also get a player who is really difficult to knock off the puck...as well as easily win board battles (more on that later).
Miller is committed to the University of Wisconsin for next season, which I think is an excellent development path. Should he want to go to the CHL, the Victoria Royals of the WHL own his rights - he was initially drafted by the Saskatoon Blades, but those rights were included in a trade with Victoria. Wisconsin has been rebuilding their program recently, and Miller will be the crown jewel of their recruitment class.
On the offensive side of things, it's easy to see why Miller was a forward all his life. He has excellent puck-handling skills and has settled really well into the role of playing on the point in the offensive zone. That being said, he doesn't have a cannon of a one-timer that some folks look for in their defenseman on the point. He does, however, have an excellent wrist shot. Recently, he's changed the wind-up on his one-timer, which has helped the puck move quicker (as well as giving the opposing goaltender less time to move/prepare for the shot). He's definitely not afraid to take the puck to the net himself if he feels that he has a good lane to the net.
At this point, Miller is projected to go in the 22-24 range, so if that range holds, and assuming Miller is our guy, I can definitely see Shero trading back a spot or two in attempt to recuperate some assets and keep the cupboard stocked.
Miller is an excellent neutral-zone player. He positions himself and his stick really well in the NZ and intercepts a ton of passes there, especially cross-ice passes. His skating then allows him to start a quick transition the other way. His defensive zone outlets are clean (more on his defensive zone play later), but it is his neutral zone play that makes me really think that Paul Castron and Company are really looking into him. The ability he has to be a "snake lurking in the grass" type player in the neutral zone in his fast counter-attack is really promising.
Defensively, Miller maintains good gap control, and has worked well learning to push speedy forwards to the outside of the ice. He doesn't lose his cool and really doesn't take many penalties either. Oh, and he loves to hit...he's really aggressive with his physicality. Clearing out the crease or attacking puck-carriers along the boards, Miller is one of the most physical defenseman in this draft. He's made some real punishing hits. His outlet passes are clean, and he's been improving all season with his defensive play behind the goal line.
What you'll read in a lot of places (including earlier in this write-up) is that K'Andre Miller is a very raw player. I agree, but if you look at his skating, raw athleticism, speed of play, and smarts, I really don't think he's very far off. Steve Kournianos of TheDraftAnalyst says that perhaps his learning curve isn't steep at all. It's also easy for a guy like Miller that is focusing on his defensive game to get overlooked by the other members of the USNDTP defensive corps - who are much more polished puck-movers. Miller is a bit of a boom or bust pick, but I don't think it's to a severe extent (I know this more or less nullifies the term "boom or bust"). However, I will say that those writing him off as simply defensive defenseman are looking at his floor. The biggest question regarding Miller's development is whether he can put it all together - this mainly involves his reading of the play...it's a different point of view from a defenseman, and can his instincts from playing forward all those years not only adapt to a defenseman's game, but also continue to propel his development towards the NHL level. If he can put it all together, the sky is the limit for this two-way defenseman. There is definite top-pairing upside. He reminds me a lot of Brady Skjei from the team across the river (purely as stylistic comparison). Another comparison for his play (this one from LastWordOnSports) include Morgan Rielly.
This draft is really deep on defense. If that's the direction we're going in, you have to make sure you make the right choice. Is K'Andre Miller the right choice for the Devils? I've been watching a lot of footage on him and I like him more and more, but I want to hear your thoughts! I'll have a write-up on another defenseman soon - one who's been rapidly rising up the draft boards lately.
Thank you for reading!
Anyways, now to the main event...let's talk about K'Andre Miller.
6'3" 206 lbs
53 games, 8G 19A 27 points
His draft rankings as of today are:
HockeyProspect - #16
ISS Hockey - #30
FutureConsiderations - #25
McKeens - #17
NHL Central Scouting - #23 (NA Skaters)
I wanted to start with Miller because he's just such an interesting prospect. He was a forward throughout his entire career until the 2015/2016 season, and he is still a pretty raw prospect. He has some hiccups and makes mistakes with his reads regarding passing lanes and pinching up in the neutral zone, however I do chalk this up to him still learning the position.
The first thing you notice about Miller, besides how big of a human being he is, is his incredible skating. This isn't even one of those "he's a good skater for his size" type cliches either. The guy can skate. He likes to rush the puck up the ice and be a team's 4th forward in situations (per this article/interview with him). All aspects of his skating are excellent - acceleration, edgework, agility, etc. Combine this with his powerful stride and strong lower-body, and you also get a player who is really difficult to knock off the puck...as well as easily win board battles (more on that later).
Miller is committed to the University of Wisconsin for next season, which I think is an excellent development path. Should he want to go to the CHL, the Victoria Royals of the WHL own his rights - he was initially drafted by the Saskatoon Blades, but those rights were included in a trade with Victoria. Wisconsin has been rebuilding their program recently, and Miller will be the crown jewel of their recruitment class.
On the offensive side of things, it's easy to see why Miller was a forward all his life. He has excellent puck-handling skills and has settled really well into the role of playing on the point in the offensive zone. That being said, he doesn't have a cannon of a one-timer that some folks look for in their defenseman on the point. He does, however, have an excellent wrist shot. Recently, he's changed the wind-up on his one-timer, which has helped the puck move quicker (as well as giving the opposing goaltender less time to move/prepare for the shot). He's definitely not afraid to take the puck to the net himself if he feels that he has a good lane to the net.
At this point, Miller is projected to go in the 22-24 range, so if that range holds, and assuming Miller is our guy, I can definitely see Shero trading back a spot or two in attempt to recuperate some assets and keep the cupboard stocked.
Miller is an excellent neutral-zone player. He positions himself and his stick really well in the NZ and intercepts a ton of passes there, especially cross-ice passes. His skating then allows him to start a quick transition the other way. His defensive zone outlets are clean (more on his defensive zone play later), but it is his neutral zone play that makes me really think that Paul Castron and Company are really looking into him. The ability he has to be a "snake lurking in the grass" type player in the neutral zone in his fast counter-attack is really promising.
Defensively, Miller maintains good gap control, and has worked well learning to push speedy forwards to the outside of the ice. He doesn't lose his cool and really doesn't take many penalties either. Oh, and he loves to hit...he's really aggressive with his physicality. Clearing out the crease or attacking puck-carriers along the boards, Miller is one of the most physical defenseman in this draft. He's made some real punishing hits. His outlet passes are clean, and he's been improving all season with his defensive play behind the goal line.
What you'll read in a lot of places (including earlier in this write-up) is that K'Andre Miller is a very raw player. I agree, but if you look at his skating, raw athleticism, speed of play, and smarts, I really don't think he's very far off. Steve Kournianos of TheDraftAnalyst says that perhaps his learning curve isn't steep at all. It's also easy for a guy like Miller that is focusing on his defensive game to get overlooked by the other members of the USNDTP defensive corps - who are much more polished puck-movers. Miller is a bit of a boom or bust pick, but I don't think it's to a severe extent (I know this more or less nullifies the term "boom or bust"). However, I will say that those writing him off as simply defensive defenseman are looking at his floor. The biggest question regarding Miller's development is whether he can put it all together - this mainly involves his reading of the play...it's a different point of view from a defenseman, and can his instincts from playing forward all those years not only adapt to a defenseman's game, but also continue to propel his development towards the NHL level. If he can put it all together, the sky is the limit for this two-way defenseman. There is definite top-pairing upside. He reminds me a lot of Brady Skjei from the team across the river (purely as stylistic comparison). Another comparison for his play (this one from LastWordOnSports) include Morgan Rielly.
This draft is really deep on defense. If that's the direction we're going in, you have to make sure you make the right choice. Is K'Andre Miller the right choice for the Devils? I've been watching a lot of footage on him and I like him more and more, but I want to hear your thoughts! I'll have a write-up on another defenseman soon - one who's been rapidly rising up the draft boards lately.
Thank you for reading!
Tuesday, May 23, 2017
2017 NHL Draft Preview: Nico Hischier
Today we look at Nico Hischier (ranked 2nd by most scouting services – ISS, TSN, Craig Button, Dobber, NHL-CSS, FC, Hockey Prospect – but ranked #1 by Recrutes), Swiss forward playing with the Halifax Mooseheads of the QMJHL. Hischier is a center, listed at 6’0”, 175 lbs and has been the go-to guy on a weak Mooseheads team this season. Let’s start with the first thing you see with Hischier: his dynamic skating. His top-end speed is great and he is quite a shifty, elusive skater. The thing that impresses me the most about his skating is how intelligent he is when choosing what speed to go and when. (This was the point of improvement with McLeod’s skating – going “all out” all the time) I think the best way to describe Hischier’s skating a playing style that I heard was how he plays like a snake lurking in the grass.
Hischier’s game is most dependent on his skating and IQ, which makes his game very subtle and difficult to play against. In terms of point production, Hischier finished second on his team in total points with 86 points (38G 48A) in 57 games (while the leading scorer on Halifax is a 19 year old who scored 1 more point in 11 more games played). That’s an average of 1.51 points per game and a 3.13 points per 60 minutes of even-strength ice time. This, in combination with his play off the puck, earned Hischier the QMJHL rookie of the year award. The CHL rookie of the year has not yet been awarded, but Hischier has to be a top contender for that. The fact that he was able to make such an immediate impact despite being so far away from home is all the more impressive. Usually there is a period of adjustment for Europeans coming over to the CHL, but for Hischier this period didn’t exist. According to his coach, “After three days, [the adjustment] was over.” There’s little question as how high his potential upside is.
The Halifax Mooseheads have also gained a bit of a reputation in recent years to churn out high-level offensive talent to the NHL: most notably Jakub Voracek, Nathan MacKinnon, Jonathan Drouin, and Nikolaj Ehlers. Hischier is no different from these types of top-end talent.
Defensively, there really are no concerns in Hischier’s game. His great skating and agility allows him to get in good position to support the more defensive players on the ice. His strength is not in the defensive zone, but he is no liability either. He’s also able to anticipate where plays are going and what kind of breakout he needs to perform. In short, he is the perfect embodiment of the “fast, attacking, supportive” mantra of the New Regime.
It’s also important to note that the Mooseheads were one of, if not, the youngest teams in the entire CHL, and they also had a new head coach for the 2016 season. Between October 26th and November 27th of this season, Hischier contributed to 32 of the team’s 63 goals – 50.79% production was his best stretch of the season, and better than any stretch of Patrick’s season (I won’t bring up Patrick any more in this).
Hischier’s skillset is topped off with a smoothly released shot and an ability to make plays at his top-end speed. I won’t lie when I say that there were times of Hischier’s season where his play reminded me of a Patrik Elias type player. I think Hischier is more suited to play center, but he might start at the wing if the Devils were to draft him. He is NHL-ready, and while his defensive game isn’t as strong as that of our more recent first round draft picks – Zacha and McLeod, but as mentioned before, Hischier’s strength is in his offensive game, skating, creativity, and transition play.
In a vacuum, Hischier checks every box of what we’re looking for as a franchise in terms of franchise-changing offensive talent, skating ability, fast thinking, and supportive play. From recent comments made by director of Amateur Scouting, Paul Castron, it seems that the scouting team is leaning a bit towards Hischier right now – which does make a good amount of sense…the New Regime has placed an emphasis on pure skill rather than a necessarily “safe” pick. Hischier has higher bust potential than other top-projected 2017 draft eligibles, but also has one of the highest ceilings in the entire draft.
Monday, May 9, 2016
Devils Draft Pick Options at 11th Overall
With the Draft Lottery completed and the final order for the June 24th first round set, it's time to take a good, long look at some of the likely players that will be available at the 11th Overall selection for the New Jersey Devils. This may be a pretty hefty read since I'm trying to make it as comprehensive as possible.
The Top Three:
This Top Three list isn't quite in order of preference. Before the landslide of work got to me, I was able to write a report for a few of the prospects on this list.
Clayton Keller
Keller's write-up can be found here.
It's not very often to see a 16-year old step onto the U18 team for the USNDP, proceed to force his way into the line-up and score at a 1.5 Point/game pace. Such was the year for Clayton Keller during the 2014-2015 season. The numbers are on Keller's side too; he's now the all-time leader for points at the USDP program (including 2nd in assists and 3rd in goals scored).
Looking past the numbers, Keller is a strong skating center with a strong, low center of balance, skating that's quick and agile, yet powerful While not the biggest of players (we'll get to that a little later), the vision he displays is almost second-to-none in this draft class. Keller was the crown jewel of the USNDP this season. He had responsibilities in all situations: top-line minutes, top Powerplay and Penalty Killing units. Keller is a real imminent offensive threat. While possessing incredible vision and IQ, his passing is phenomenal. At the most recent U18 World Championship, Keller was named Most Valuable Player for the Tournament, after scoring 14 points (4G 10A) in 7 games. I know numbers don't tell the whole story, but at every level of competition he's played at, Keller has put up phenomenal numbers. He's just a player that's able to find the score-sheet, plain and simple.
When Keller has the puck, he is able to make an explosive first step and accelerate to where he needs to go very quickly. He's nifty with the puck and is able to weave his way through defending traffic. As much of a cliche as it may sound, teammates and line-mates have to be ready for the puck whenever they may be on the ice with Keller. In addition to his excellent playmaking ability, Keller's wrist shot is smooth, quick, heavy, and very accurate. It makes him an all-around offensive threat.
A concern regarding Keller's game is his size. He's 5'10" and about 168 pounds. I agree that his frame gives him some trouble in the corners and along the boards, but I don't see this preventing Keller from reaching his full potential, which is that of a top-line center. I'm not concerned about Keller's game in the defensive zone because he is smart enough of a player and has good stickwork to cause turnovers. His speed and quickness are also capable of creating problems for attacking teams because of his ability to transition so smoothly from defense to offense. There are also plenty of top-line centers throughout the league that are under 6 feet tall...guys like Datsyuk, Giroux, Pavelski, and Duchene come to mind immediately. What Keller needs to work on is his lower-body strength and adding mass there to help him improve his game in the rough parts of the ice.
I should probably mention that the theme of him playing against older, bigger, stronger competition has been very consistent through his career. He's played against players of all ages, really, from NCAA players (up to 24 years old...7 years older than him), European players, and pending NHL players from the CHL leagues. The pure talent is there, and if he should continue through with his NCAA commitment (Boston University), I strongly believe that he will have a massive season. Don't want to get ahead of myself, but the kind of talent he has could lead him to a potential Hobey Baker award finalist spot. Did I go too far? Well let's extrapolate a bit on some prior numbers. In 12 exhibition games against NCAA Division-1 games, Keller scored 21 points (9G 12A). That also includes 11 points (4G 7A) in 6 games against NCAA D-1 tournament teams. That's an overall 1.75 Point/game rate for Keller. That's really favorable to Kyle Connor (drafted by Winnipeg, played one season at Michigan and recently signed an Entry-Level Contract). Connor played in 5 exhibition games before going to Michigan and scored 6 points (2G 4A) in those 5 games. I think Keller spends 2 years at the most in the NCAA before pushing for an NHL roster spot...more likely to be 1, but let's just see how he progresses.
Yes that's extrapolating on just a 5 game sample and a 12 game sample, but there is such an immense amount of talent in Keller. Keller has an internal motor to his game that reminds me a lot of Zach Parise (relentless, if you will), but Keller's poise with the puck and offensive flash remind me, purely stylistically, of Mitch Marner. There's a lot of flash to his game, but luckily for us, there's also just as much substance to it. Keller's one of the younger players in the draft, and won't turn 18 until late July. There's still plenty of time for him to grow out, to hone his skills, and become even better of a prospect.
Tyson Jost
Jost's write-up can be found here.
Jost took a bit of a different, albeit not uncommon, path of development. He played this season for Penticton of the BCHL and is opting to join the University of North Dakota next season, as opposed to taking the conventional Canadian Juniors path. As a result, there have been questions throughout the season about whether or not he'll be able to produce at a high level against tougher levels of competition. Hopefully some of these worries were put to rest after Jost set the record for individual scoring for Team Canada at the U18 World Championship, with 15 points (6G 9A) in 7 games. This was one more point that the previous record set by Connor McDavid (during McDavid's draft eligible year -1 ). Interesting to note that he also apparently had a broken finger during the tournament.
Jost is very solidly built and is an interesting combination of skill, intelligence, speed, and size. Jost is a remarkable playmaker and plays the game at a very fast pace. He's excellent along the boards, winning most of his battles and positions himself well.. He thinks the game at a high -level too. If Jones gets the puck while in the slot, it's almost certainly game over. Jost is a great all-around goal-scorer but his shot from within the slot area is fantastic. In addition to his scoring, he does really well in leading teammates with crisp passes. His overall awareness is just excellent. Jost is a ferocious offensive talent. A typical buzzsaw-type forward in terms of grit, energy, speed, and skill, Jost is absolutely a very inviting option on the board if he's still there at #11. I like the style comparison for Jost to Joe Pavelski. Another style comparison some people see is that of the Johnathan Toews mold. It's also good to note the intangibles, Jost was the captain of his BCHL team this season and was also the captain of Team Canada's U18 team.
Jost boasts a strong two-way game as well. Having to grow into hockey as a smaller player, he developed strong elements to his "small game" like stick lifts and other reads on the ice. While not huge in stature, he is very difficult to knock off of the puck. I think he has the potential to be a top-line center, but will ultimately be a heck of a 2nd line center with an all-around complete game. Jost has been excellent all year, but this extra boost from the U18 tournament may put him over the top into the Top-10, especially to a team that would be looking for a center, like Montreal. In comparison between Jost and Keller, I would say that Keller has a higher ceiling to his talent, but Jost has a higher floor. His skating is excellent, and I would be surprised if he didn't make it to the NHL.
Mentioned earlier, Jost is committed to go to the University of North Dakota next season. I believe he's another candidate to have a massive season. Can you imagine if he played on a line with Brock Boeser and Nick Schmaltz? Wow that would be impressive. UND also has some of the best facilities in junior/NCAA hockey and is a great overall program. I think he will need to work on honing his two-way game some more while at UND. I don't know if he'll be available at #11, but if the Devils were to select him, I'd be very happy. He's got a whole lot of potential.
Logan Brown
Logan Brown is definitely one of the more intriguing prospects of the first round this year. It's really uncommon to find a 6'6" player that skates as smoothly as Brown does and who also has the offensive potential that Brown does. The biggest area for improvement is consistency. Which Logan Brown is going to show up to the game? Some games, it's hard to notice him out there (yes, even for a 6'6" center), while others he can absolutely dominate, and take over a game. Thankfully the second half of the season (his 2nd so far in the OHL) has seen a massive increase in Brown's consistent play, and a good jump in the draft board for him.
I can't emphasize enough how much I like Brown's skating. Brown also has a lethal shot...one of the best in the draft class, actually. It's just that he shoots the puck like Jason Spezza - not nearly as often as he should because he has a bullet.
In addition to a strong second half of the season, Brown's strong play into the U18's, where he tallied 12 points (3G 9A) in 7 games and was one of the United States' best forwards. Brown uses his frame to work well along the boards and in the corners. He battles down below the goal line well, but other than that doesn't quite play a physical game. In a sense it's like Eric Fehr in the sense of having a big frame but not using it with a real killer sense. That's not a problem, just don't expect that from him. His offensive game is very close to being NHL-ready and I think he'll go back for one more year of the OHL.
In terms of playing style, it's hard to ignore the Joe Thornton comparisons: a massive center with his game predominantly consisting of play-making. Brown's path to the NHL will be hammering out his inconsistency, but I don't really think that's going to be a problem. In terms of potential, the sky is the limit with Brown (this isn't a tall joke, I promise). He has the tools to be elite, a definite 1st liner in my mind if he can put it all together. The question at this point is whether or not he'll be available at #11, especially with Montreal picking at #9
Rounding Out the Top Six Options:
Michael McLeod
McLeod's write-up can be found here
McLeod is one of, if not, the best skaters in the draft class. His speed is incredible and his gear control is excellent. His speed and acceleration help him create many scoring chances. His explosive skating is key and while he has great lateral movement, his most impressive ability for skating, in my opinion, is just how quickly he can change between the "gears" of his toolbox. McLeod plays an excellent 200-foot game, supported by his skating. He has a great shot and a smooth release. I wouldn't call him a sniper, but he does have a strong shot. In order to improve his chances of being an effective NHL'er he needs to work on the placement of the shots and getting them away quicker as well as his overall finishing ability.
His offensive creativity and strong vision and IQ within the offensive zone are extremely impressive. He positions himself well and is able to go to the dirty areas to be effective to keep the cycle going. His strong size and frame also help him along the boards, in the cycle, and to fight off checks. He still needs to add more muscle before he makes it to the NHL. I don't like the idea of "compete level" (it seems almost cliche to me), but I think it's important to talk about how McLeod just never quits playing and competing hard every shift.
He has a very safe projection for the future. There are many other prospects who I believe will have higher offensive ceilings, but McLeod, in my opinion, has the potential to be a top-end second-line center for a competing team. A similarity to McLeod's game, in my opinion, would be Jared McCann, with the only real differences in play being McCann having a better defensive play, while McLeod is much faster. Another good comparison for McLeod would be a center version of Blake Wheeler: excellent speed and board play, high "compete level", excellent but not elite stickhandling and hands...albeit at a stylistically level and not quite the same skill level.
McLeod's combination of size, speed, IQ, and overall tools at center position, and relatively safe projection path will lead him to have a potential of being draft very highly. The biggest issue surrounding McLeod is his offensive production standpoint. Some folks viewed McLeod as being "carried" offensively this season by having Alex Nylander on his line. I don't like the idea of a player "carrying" another (and from there you could make the argument that McLeod "carried" Nylander defensively), but McLeod didn't quite help his case out when Nylander was with Team Sweden for the World Junior Championships.
What McLeod brings to the game is his fantastic complete game. If his offensive finishing was just as good as the rest of his game, he'd be projected to go in the Top-5 on draft day, if not challenge for the top spot. As mentioned earlier, he's a very safe projection to be an NHL player. The question is just how high he can go.
Julien Gauthier
Gauthier's write-up can be found here.
If you could make a check-list for everything within a prospect that is an organizational need for the Devils, Julien Gauthier would tick every box. A big, strong, Power-forward, goal-scoring Right Winger would be a God-send for the organization. I'll get into why I have him outside of my top-3 a little further below, but that being said, I would still be very happy if the Devils drafted him.
He's a huge power-winger with an incredible knack for scoring goals. He's very NHL-ready, and not simply because of his size. He plays a very strong physical game, protects the puck well, and has a significant net front presence. He's able to use his long reach to his advantage in these categories, which makes it even more difficult to contain him. His skating is excellent and his shot is exceptional.
Gauthier's has good offensive zone vision and he drives to the net with ease to drive the pace of play. Gauthier plays on a very deep Val-d'Or team, and as a result, doesn't get top-line minutes. In my mind, this makes him a good candidate for a breakout in points if he is able to get consistent minutes on the top-line. Despite that, Gauthier has been playing significant time in all situations. He's able to create offense while on the penalty kill and also plays a significant portion of time in front of the net on the power play. This presence at the front of the net is a big contributor to his "Cy Young" like numbers.
There was a video from earlier in the season where a Buffalo scout (I believe it was Buffalo) was talking about how he had Gauthier listed as #2 on his list, and could challenge Matthews for the top spot. I think this was back in November or December, so a lot has changed. Gauthier has disappointed scouts in the second half of the season. There are concerns of him being a "one-dimensional" winger (which is reverting back to the concerns about him coming into this season). He also had a pretty high, potentially unsustainable shooting percentage to start off the season. That's not to say I don't think he can score 40 goals again. It's just unlikely he goes back to an almost goal-per game for the first half of the season.
His stick-work and positioning is excellent. I think the potential is there to become a very solid top-6 power forward. His style of play reminds me a lot of James Neal. Defensively I'd like to see Gauthier improve his positioning in his own zone. There are times where he gets caught staring at the puck and is not aware of situation awareness when it comes to opposing players in "high-danger zones". He isn't lacking in a defensive awareness type, but these are things that will most likely come with further experience...The combination of Gauthier's size and speed make him very hard to contain at top speed. What impresses me about him is how good he is in the corners and along the boards. He's not just big and strong, he positions himself well, and that's an aspect of his game that will be vital to being an effective power forward at the NHL level.
There may still be consistency issues, but when Gauthier is on top of his game, he's a relentless, hard working, and full of heart power winger with a brilliant scoring touch. Despite not playing center, Gauthier plays a strong winger's game and is the type of player who you can build a championship around. Can you imagine a line having Zacha and Gauthier on it? The speed, power, and forechecking would be ridiculous. As mentioned earlier, I think it's possible for him to step into the NHL right away this upcoming season, but I think that would hurt his development. At the most, I would have Gauthier play the 9 games at the NHL to not burn a year off his contract, and then send him back down to the QMJHL.
Kieffer Bellows
In case you're wondering why there's a "Top Six" option instead of 5, this player is the reason. I definitely think taking Bellows at #11 would be a "reach", but his shot and goal-scoring is too tantalizing. Bellows has all the tools to be a top-6, most likely top-line, power-forward at the NHL level. He scored 50 goals in 62 games for the USDP. The USDP and USHL are just harder leagues to score in, making his 50 goal season all the more impressive. Bellows is committed to Boston University next season, but I think he would have torn up the Canadian Juniors should he have decided to go there for his development route.
Bellows also had the benefit of playing on Clayton Keller's wing this season, which comes with its perks, but Bellows is extremely talented on his own. Even last year, when Bellows was on the Sioux Falls Stampede of the USHL (his rookie season of the USHL) he scored over 30 goals. I know the Devils may not be looking for a Left-Winger, but they are also looking for high caliber players, and Bellows has that potential. Bellows played center back in high school, but looks much better playing on the wing.
Bellows brings more than his shot to the ice. He plays an incredibly physical game and goes hard on the cycle and the forecheck. He also has a strong net-front presence. He very much reminds me of Timo Meier, who was selected 9th overall in last year's Entry Draft.
Bellows's wrist-shot is not the only dangerous tool in his offensive arsenal. He also has a strong one-timer and a good tendency of deflection goals. He protects the puck well, but can sometimes end up shooting the puck in situations where he should have passed. Sometimes having a volume shooter is not a bad thing, but that is pretty much what you are going to get with Bellows. His strong IQ also helps him out in the defensive side of the game. He is not afraid to hit either in the neutral zone or defensive zone. He hits quite a bit, too, but not all of them are highlight-reel worthy.
He needs to add more muscle to his frame if he wants to play his game at the NHL level. I can really see a "one and done" type situation with him being good to push for an NHL roster spot after just one year of development at Boston U., but we will have to see how next year goes for him.
The Reaches:
While each scout, scouting organization, and team may have different "top" lists, in my view, selecting any of these players in this list would be considered a "reach" in my opinion.
Luke Kunin
Taking Kunin at #11 would be a reach, but that's the point of this section. Kunin plays a very heavy style game, whether it be his physicality, willingness to get under opponents' skin, or his shot. Kunin played for a very depleted University of Wisconsin team this year and led the team in goals (was 2nd overall in points by 1 point).
Kunin is an extremely intelligent forward and has a very high offensive ceiling. The issue for Kunin is putting it all together. He needs to work on his stickhandling, but his skating is much better than last year, and he has also put on some good muscle mass this year. Kunin plays a very "honest" game in that he doesn't cheat in any of the zones. He plays the game the right way and it's not too often to see a player with his kind of on-ice work ethic.
Kunin's IQ is very impressive. Offensively, he's able to find soft spots in the opposing defense and work his way around them. When he doesn't have the puck he adjusts his positioning well to get open or keep the cycle going. Defensively, he does the little things right, and is able to read passes and position himself well. While not necessarily an IQ thing, one thing about Kunin is that he's a big-game player. He plays the game like he has so many times before, despite what the level of the competition may be. During the All-American Prospects game, he looked fantastic and wasn't overthinking anything, despite any tendencies to do so on a big stage like that.
There is a lot to like about Kunin's game. He has a quick, heavy shot as well as quick hands, quick skating, and a high IQ. The release on his shot is quite fast and he's got good aim and accuracy. In addition to that, he can distribute the puck very well. Kunin's good in the cycle and in protecting the puck. One area for improvement in Kunin's game is his first step. Despite all those, the facet I like most about Kunin's game is the level of intensity he brings on every shift. He was an important Penalty Killer for Wisconsin this season and he was blocking shots, working hard in the corners.
Kunin has the potential to be a top-6 center, but ultimately I think he ends up being a strong middle-6 center. Regardless of where his offensive progression takes him, he's absolutely the type of player your would want on your team.
German Rubtsov
The crown jewel of the newly founded Russian U18 organization, Rubtsov is built like a fire hydrant. I will admit that I don't quite know as much about Rubtsov as I'd like. To me he's such a wildcard. He's an unbelievably strong two-way center, one of the best two-way games in the draft class. Additionally, his frame and playmaking skills project him to have a very high potential floor.
I have no intention of getting into the debate for what is a better development path for young Russians, but I think it might be best for Rubtsov to return to Russia to continue his development, similar to the Kuznetsov development path. Rubtsov's overall skillset is pretty underrated, in my view. Part of this is because Rubtsov already plays a very strong "North American" style game.
Rubtsov is a very strong skater and has an extremely high IQ. I like his shot, but I'd like to see him use it more. Rubtsov is a very safe pick, in my mind, about making the NHL.
You may not have noticed him playing at the U18 tournament. That's because the U18 Russian team was suspended from participating at this year's tournament (and had to send the U17 team instead) because the team tested positive for a banned substance - meldonium. I don't think this will cause a drop in draft stock for him. But rather, I think the other prospects stepping up for major tournament performances will put them ahead of him. (I'm not going to speculate any further on that, because we really don't know too much about the situation and I don't think it's fair to judge or speculate based on what happened to a player, especially if he didn't know what was being given to him.)
A play style comparison for Rubtsov is that of Pavel Datsyuk - Rubtsov has a very impressive set of hands and can stick-handle very well all while boasting an incredible two-way game and plays a pass-first type offense. As for projection, I think Rubtsov will be an excellent 2nd line center on a strong, contending team. He's the type of player that really works well matching up against the top lines of opponents and will be a key asset moving forward. There's also the chance he breaks out offensively (he was 2nd in total points on his U18 team) and makes a lot of teams regret not picking him earlier. I know I'm moving the goalposts there, but I think those are the two most likely options when it comes to Rubtsov.
The Pipe-Dreams:
There are possibilities where these players will be available, but this post isn't about the ways in which they would fall to us from a projected top-10 pick, but rather just an overall look at the player.
Alexander Nylander
Nylander's write-up can be found here.
Nylander is leading up to the Draft with some very impressive accolades from this season alone. Nylander was in the top 20 in OHL total scoring and the highest rookie scorer. He won the OHL Rookie of the Year. Nylander also represented Team Sweden at the U18 tournament, where he helped lead them to a silver medal by leading the team in scoring (He was also 5th in scoring at the U18 tournament). Alex has a remarkable shot, skates extremely well - he moves around the ice so well. His balance while handling the puck or avoiding a check is very impressive as well. Nylander's skating is phenomenal, with excellent top end speed and acceleration, accentuated by elite edgework.
Nylander's ability to distribute the puck is excellent as well, and I would argue he is a better play-maker than sniper, despite how good his shot is. He is a threat for offensive chances nearly every time he is on the ice. He's excellent at driving possession and also driving the pace of play. He mainly plays on the Left wing for the Trout, but I believe that if he is to make an impact at the NHL-level, it would be on either wing.
Nylander's main area for improvement is his defensive play. Not that it's a liability, but there is room for improvement. His positional awareness and overall knowledge of the ice help give him the foundation for growth in his defensive game, so that doesn't quite concern me. It just needs some work.
Alexander Nylander's specialty really comes where his speed and fast-tempo offense can be shown, and this is mainly in the transition game. This is what leads me to believe that he will also be on the Devils' radar. The main reasons for this would be his immense skating ability, slick puck distribution skills, strong transition game, and excellent shot. He certainly does have top-6 potential, and possibly a ceiling of being a top-line winger...most likely on the left side. I'd say an interesting style comparison for Nylander would be a Loui Eriksson-type.
Jakob Chychrun
All I'll say before I begin is that if Chychrun falls to the Devils, then it would be a true blessing from the Hockey Gods.
From the conventional stat-watching point of view Chychrun had a relatively disappointing season. For someone who was touted as having #1 D potential last year, the slow season (especially the slow half) didn't help the cause. Also, you'll notice this with similar discussion during Ekblad's draft-eligible season too. The stage was set for both of them and there was a lot of spotlight on them, which makes it easier for folks to pick out flaws and possibly even over-exaggerate them. From a numbers perspective, the second half of the season was a significant improvement for Chychrun, and he had a solid playoff performance to show for it.
Looking at the non-statistical approach (watching the game itself), Chychrun was an absolute beast. He was responsible for just every game situation and would log up to 30 minutes a night for Sarnia. Everything starts with his remarkable skating. Every physical part of his game: his skating, shooting, passing, etc. is borderline elite, if not elite already. He thinks the game at a very high level too. There's still plenty of room for improvement and refinement, but he could step into an NHL role immediately.
The big concern for me about Chychrun is his shoulder injury history. It's given him a good amount of trouble the past few seasons. I don't foresee this proving to be a major problem for him, but I would understand any uncertainty about it. Chychrun would be the absolute perfect defenseman to fall to the Devils, because of not only his immense potential, but also because the organization is rather low on Left-handed defensemen.
Chychrun is an incredibly complete defenseman, a two-way defenseman in every sense of the term. There are many ways he can beat a defenseman while attacking and there are lots of ways he can prevent an opposing forward from shooting or setting up in Chychrun's defensive zone. I'm particularly high on Chychrun so excuse me if these claims are outlandish. I think his floor is a Zach Bogosian type player and his ceiling would be Drew Doughty type player. Ultimately I think he'll end up in the Alex Pietrangelo tier. I think he has franchise potential.
I'll try and update this more content to help give you as best of an idea for each of these players. If you have any suggestions, feedback, or ideas, please let me know! I'd love to hear your thoughts on who you think the Devils should pick with the 11th Overall Selection this draft.
Follow me on Twitter @DTJ_AHockeyBlog for more updates.
Thanks for reading!
The Top Three:
This Top Three list isn't quite in order of preference. Before the landslide of work got to me, I was able to write a report for a few of the prospects on this list.
Clayton Keller
Keller's write-up can be found here.
It's not very often to see a 16-year old step onto the U18 team for the USNDP, proceed to force his way into the line-up and score at a 1.5 Point/game pace. Such was the year for Clayton Keller during the 2014-2015 season. The numbers are on Keller's side too; he's now the all-time leader for points at the USDP program (including 2nd in assists and 3rd in goals scored).
Looking past the numbers, Keller is a strong skating center with a strong, low center of balance, skating that's quick and agile, yet powerful While not the biggest of players (we'll get to that a little later), the vision he displays is almost second-to-none in this draft class. Keller was the crown jewel of the USNDP this season. He had responsibilities in all situations: top-line minutes, top Powerplay and Penalty Killing units. Keller is a real imminent offensive threat. While possessing incredible vision and IQ, his passing is phenomenal. At the most recent U18 World Championship, Keller was named Most Valuable Player for the Tournament, after scoring 14 points (4G 10A) in 7 games. I know numbers don't tell the whole story, but at every level of competition he's played at, Keller has put up phenomenal numbers. He's just a player that's able to find the score-sheet, plain and simple.
When Keller has the puck, he is able to make an explosive first step and accelerate to where he needs to go very quickly. He's nifty with the puck and is able to weave his way through defending traffic. As much of a cliche as it may sound, teammates and line-mates have to be ready for the puck whenever they may be on the ice with Keller. In addition to his excellent playmaking ability, Keller's wrist shot is smooth, quick, heavy, and very accurate. It makes him an all-around offensive threat.
A concern regarding Keller's game is his size. He's 5'10" and about 168 pounds. I agree that his frame gives him some trouble in the corners and along the boards, but I don't see this preventing Keller from reaching his full potential, which is that of a top-line center. I'm not concerned about Keller's game in the defensive zone because he is smart enough of a player and has good stickwork to cause turnovers. His speed and quickness are also capable of creating problems for attacking teams because of his ability to transition so smoothly from defense to offense. There are also plenty of top-line centers throughout the league that are under 6 feet tall...guys like Datsyuk, Giroux, Pavelski, and Duchene come to mind immediately. What Keller needs to work on is his lower-body strength and adding mass there to help him improve his game in the rough parts of the ice.
I should probably mention that the theme of him playing against older, bigger, stronger competition has been very consistent through his career. He's played against players of all ages, really, from NCAA players (up to 24 years old...7 years older than him), European players, and pending NHL players from the CHL leagues. The pure talent is there, and if he should continue through with his NCAA commitment (Boston University), I strongly believe that he will have a massive season. Don't want to get ahead of myself, but the kind of talent he has could lead him to a potential Hobey Baker award finalist spot. Did I go too far? Well let's extrapolate a bit on some prior numbers. In 12 exhibition games against NCAA Division-1 games, Keller scored 21 points (9G 12A). That also includes 11 points (4G 7A) in 6 games against NCAA D-1 tournament teams. That's an overall 1.75 Point/game rate for Keller. That's really favorable to Kyle Connor (drafted by Winnipeg, played one season at Michigan and recently signed an Entry-Level Contract). Connor played in 5 exhibition games before going to Michigan and scored 6 points (2G 4A) in those 5 games. I think Keller spends 2 years at the most in the NCAA before pushing for an NHL roster spot...more likely to be 1, but let's just see how he progresses.
Yes that's extrapolating on just a 5 game sample and a 12 game sample, but there is such an immense amount of talent in Keller. Keller has an internal motor to his game that reminds me a lot of Zach Parise (relentless, if you will), but Keller's poise with the puck and offensive flash remind me, purely stylistically, of Mitch Marner. There's a lot of flash to his game, but luckily for us, there's also just as much substance to it. Keller's one of the younger players in the draft, and won't turn 18 until late July. There's still plenty of time for him to grow out, to hone his skills, and become even better of a prospect.
Tyson Jost
Jost's write-up can be found here.
Jost took a bit of a different, albeit not uncommon, path of development. He played this season for Penticton of the BCHL and is opting to join the University of North Dakota next season, as opposed to taking the conventional Canadian Juniors path. As a result, there have been questions throughout the season about whether or not he'll be able to produce at a high level against tougher levels of competition. Hopefully some of these worries were put to rest after Jost set the record for individual scoring for Team Canada at the U18 World Championship, with 15 points (6G 9A) in 7 games. This was one more point that the previous record set by Connor McDavid (during McDavid's draft eligible year -1 ). Interesting to note that he also apparently had a broken finger during the tournament.
Jost is very solidly built and is an interesting combination of skill, intelligence, speed, and size. Jost is a remarkable playmaker and plays the game at a very fast pace. He's excellent along the boards, winning most of his battles and positions himself well.. He thinks the game at a high -level too. If Jones gets the puck while in the slot, it's almost certainly game over. Jost is a great all-around goal-scorer but his shot from within the slot area is fantastic. In addition to his scoring, he does really well in leading teammates with crisp passes. His overall awareness is just excellent. Jost is a ferocious offensive talent. A typical buzzsaw-type forward in terms of grit, energy, speed, and skill, Jost is absolutely a very inviting option on the board if he's still there at #11. I like the style comparison for Jost to Joe Pavelski. Another style comparison some people see is that of the Johnathan Toews mold. It's also good to note the intangibles, Jost was the captain of his BCHL team this season and was also the captain of Team Canada's U18 team.
Jost boasts a strong two-way game as well. Having to grow into hockey as a smaller player, he developed strong elements to his "small game" like stick lifts and other reads on the ice. While not huge in stature, he is very difficult to knock off of the puck. I think he has the potential to be a top-line center, but will ultimately be a heck of a 2nd line center with an all-around complete game. Jost has been excellent all year, but this extra boost from the U18 tournament may put him over the top into the Top-10, especially to a team that would be looking for a center, like Montreal. In comparison between Jost and Keller, I would say that Keller has a higher ceiling to his talent, but Jost has a higher floor. His skating is excellent, and I would be surprised if he didn't make it to the NHL.
Mentioned earlier, Jost is committed to go to the University of North Dakota next season. I believe he's another candidate to have a massive season. Can you imagine if he played on a line with Brock Boeser and Nick Schmaltz? Wow that would be impressive. UND also has some of the best facilities in junior/NCAA hockey and is a great overall program. I think he will need to work on honing his two-way game some more while at UND. I don't know if he'll be available at #11, but if the Devils were to select him, I'd be very happy. He's got a whole lot of potential.
Logan Brown
Logan Brown is definitely one of the more intriguing prospects of the first round this year. It's really uncommon to find a 6'6" player that skates as smoothly as Brown does and who also has the offensive potential that Brown does. The biggest area for improvement is consistency. Which Logan Brown is going to show up to the game? Some games, it's hard to notice him out there (yes, even for a 6'6" center), while others he can absolutely dominate, and take over a game. Thankfully the second half of the season (his 2nd so far in the OHL) has seen a massive increase in Brown's consistent play, and a good jump in the draft board for him.
I can't emphasize enough how much I like Brown's skating. Brown also has a lethal shot...one of the best in the draft class, actually. It's just that he shoots the puck like Jason Spezza - not nearly as often as he should because he has a bullet.
In addition to a strong second half of the season, Brown's strong play into the U18's, where he tallied 12 points (3G 9A) in 7 games and was one of the United States' best forwards. Brown uses his frame to work well along the boards and in the corners. He battles down below the goal line well, but other than that doesn't quite play a physical game. In a sense it's like Eric Fehr in the sense of having a big frame but not using it with a real killer sense. That's not a problem, just don't expect that from him. His offensive game is very close to being NHL-ready and I think he'll go back for one more year of the OHL.
In terms of playing style, it's hard to ignore the Joe Thornton comparisons: a massive center with his game predominantly consisting of play-making. Brown's path to the NHL will be hammering out his inconsistency, but I don't really think that's going to be a problem. In terms of potential, the sky is the limit with Brown (this isn't a tall joke, I promise). He has the tools to be elite, a definite 1st liner in my mind if he can put it all together. The question at this point is whether or not he'll be available at #11, especially with Montreal picking at #9
Rounding Out the Top Six Options:
Michael McLeod
McLeod's write-up can be found here
McLeod is one of, if not, the best skaters in the draft class. His speed is incredible and his gear control is excellent. His speed and acceleration help him create many scoring chances. His explosive skating is key and while he has great lateral movement, his most impressive ability for skating, in my opinion, is just how quickly he can change between the "gears" of his toolbox. McLeod plays an excellent 200-foot game, supported by his skating. He has a great shot and a smooth release. I wouldn't call him a sniper, but he does have a strong shot. In order to improve his chances of being an effective NHL'er he needs to work on the placement of the shots and getting them away quicker as well as his overall finishing ability.
His offensive creativity and strong vision and IQ within the offensive zone are extremely impressive. He positions himself well and is able to go to the dirty areas to be effective to keep the cycle going. His strong size and frame also help him along the boards, in the cycle, and to fight off checks. He still needs to add more muscle before he makes it to the NHL. I don't like the idea of "compete level" (it seems almost cliche to me), but I think it's important to talk about how McLeod just never quits playing and competing hard every shift.
He has a very safe projection for the future. There are many other prospects who I believe will have higher offensive ceilings, but McLeod, in my opinion, has the potential to be a top-end second-line center for a competing team. A similarity to McLeod's game, in my opinion, would be Jared McCann, with the only real differences in play being McCann having a better defensive play, while McLeod is much faster. Another good comparison for McLeod would be a center version of Blake Wheeler: excellent speed and board play, high "compete level", excellent but not elite stickhandling and hands...albeit at a stylistically level and not quite the same skill level.
McLeod's combination of size, speed, IQ, and overall tools at center position, and relatively safe projection path will lead him to have a potential of being draft very highly. The biggest issue surrounding McLeod is his offensive production standpoint. Some folks viewed McLeod as being "carried" offensively this season by having Alex Nylander on his line. I don't like the idea of a player "carrying" another (and from there you could make the argument that McLeod "carried" Nylander defensively), but McLeod didn't quite help his case out when Nylander was with Team Sweden for the World Junior Championships.
What McLeod brings to the game is his fantastic complete game. If his offensive finishing was just as good as the rest of his game, he'd be projected to go in the Top-5 on draft day, if not challenge for the top spot. As mentioned earlier, he's a very safe projection to be an NHL player. The question is just how high he can go.
Julien Gauthier
Gauthier's write-up can be found here.
If you could make a check-list for everything within a prospect that is an organizational need for the Devils, Julien Gauthier would tick every box. A big, strong, Power-forward, goal-scoring Right Winger would be a God-send for the organization. I'll get into why I have him outside of my top-3 a little further below, but that being said, I would still be very happy if the Devils drafted him.
He's a huge power-winger with an incredible knack for scoring goals. He's very NHL-ready, and not simply because of his size. He plays a very strong physical game, protects the puck well, and has a significant net front presence. He's able to use his long reach to his advantage in these categories, which makes it even more difficult to contain him. His skating is excellent and his shot is exceptional.
Gauthier's has good offensive zone vision and he drives to the net with ease to drive the pace of play. Gauthier plays on a very deep Val-d'Or team, and as a result, doesn't get top-line minutes. In my mind, this makes him a good candidate for a breakout in points if he is able to get consistent minutes on the top-line. Despite that, Gauthier has been playing significant time in all situations. He's able to create offense while on the penalty kill and also plays a significant portion of time in front of the net on the power play. This presence at the front of the net is a big contributor to his "Cy Young" like numbers.
There was a video from earlier in the season where a Buffalo scout (I believe it was Buffalo) was talking about how he had Gauthier listed as #2 on his list, and could challenge Matthews for the top spot. I think this was back in November or December, so a lot has changed. Gauthier has disappointed scouts in the second half of the season. There are concerns of him being a "one-dimensional" winger (which is reverting back to the concerns about him coming into this season). He also had a pretty high, potentially unsustainable shooting percentage to start off the season. That's not to say I don't think he can score 40 goals again. It's just unlikely he goes back to an almost goal-per game for the first half of the season.
His stick-work and positioning is excellent. I think the potential is there to become a very solid top-6 power forward. His style of play reminds me a lot of James Neal. Defensively I'd like to see Gauthier improve his positioning in his own zone. There are times where he gets caught staring at the puck and is not aware of situation awareness when it comes to opposing players in "high-danger zones". He isn't lacking in a defensive awareness type, but these are things that will most likely come with further experience...The combination of Gauthier's size and speed make him very hard to contain at top speed. What impresses me about him is how good he is in the corners and along the boards. He's not just big and strong, he positions himself well, and that's an aspect of his game that will be vital to being an effective power forward at the NHL level.
There may still be consistency issues, but when Gauthier is on top of his game, he's a relentless, hard working, and full of heart power winger with a brilliant scoring touch. Despite not playing center, Gauthier plays a strong winger's game and is the type of player who you can build a championship around. Can you imagine a line having Zacha and Gauthier on it? The speed, power, and forechecking would be ridiculous. As mentioned earlier, I think it's possible for him to step into the NHL right away this upcoming season, but I think that would hurt his development. At the most, I would have Gauthier play the 9 games at the NHL to not burn a year off his contract, and then send him back down to the QMJHL.
Kieffer Bellows
In case you're wondering why there's a "Top Six" option instead of 5, this player is the reason. I definitely think taking Bellows at #11 would be a "reach", but his shot and goal-scoring is too tantalizing. Bellows has all the tools to be a top-6, most likely top-line, power-forward at the NHL level. He scored 50 goals in 62 games for the USDP. The USDP and USHL are just harder leagues to score in, making his 50 goal season all the more impressive. Bellows is committed to Boston University next season, but I think he would have torn up the Canadian Juniors should he have decided to go there for his development route.
Bellows also had the benefit of playing on Clayton Keller's wing this season, which comes with its perks, but Bellows is extremely talented on his own. Even last year, when Bellows was on the Sioux Falls Stampede of the USHL (his rookie season of the USHL) he scored over 30 goals. I know the Devils may not be looking for a Left-Winger, but they are also looking for high caliber players, and Bellows has that potential. Bellows played center back in high school, but looks much better playing on the wing.
Bellows brings more than his shot to the ice. He plays an incredibly physical game and goes hard on the cycle and the forecheck. He also has a strong net-front presence. He very much reminds me of Timo Meier, who was selected 9th overall in last year's Entry Draft.
Bellows's wrist-shot is not the only dangerous tool in his offensive arsenal. He also has a strong one-timer and a good tendency of deflection goals. He protects the puck well, but can sometimes end up shooting the puck in situations where he should have passed. Sometimes having a volume shooter is not a bad thing, but that is pretty much what you are going to get with Bellows. His strong IQ also helps him out in the defensive side of the game. He is not afraid to hit either in the neutral zone or defensive zone. He hits quite a bit, too, but not all of them are highlight-reel worthy.
He needs to add more muscle to his frame if he wants to play his game at the NHL level. I can really see a "one and done" type situation with him being good to push for an NHL roster spot after just one year of development at Boston U., but we will have to see how next year goes for him.
The Reaches:
While each scout, scouting organization, and team may have different "top" lists, in my view, selecting any of these players in this list would be considered a "reach" in my opinion.
Luke Kunin
Taking Kunin at #11 would be a reach, but that's the point of this section. Kunin plays a very heavy style game, whether it be his physicality, willingness to get under opponents' skin, or his shot. Kunin played for a very depleted University of Wisconsin team this year and led the team in goals (was 2nd overall in points by 1 point).
Kunin is an extremely intelligent forward and has a very high offensive ceiling. The issue for Kunin is putting it all together. He needs to work on his stickhandling, but his skating is much better than last year, and he has also put on some good muscle mass this year. Kunin plays a very "honest" game in that he doesn't cheat in any of the zones. He plays the game the right way and it's not too often to see a player with his kind of on-ice work ethic.
Kunin's IQ is very impressive. Offensively, he's able to find soft spots in the opposing defense and work his way around them. When he doesn't have the puck he adjusts his positioning well to get open or keep the cycle going. Defensively, he does the little things right, and is able to read passes and position himself well. While not necessarily an IQ thing, one thing about Kunin is that he's a big-game player. He plays the game like he has so many times before, despite what the level of the competition may be. During the All-American Prospects game, he looked fantastic and wasn't overthinking anything, despite any tendencies to do so on a big stage like that.
There is a lot to like about Kunin's game. He has a quick, heavy shot as well as quick hands, quick skating, and a high IQ. The release on his shot is quite fast and he's got good aim and accuracy. In addition to that, he can distribute the puck very well. Kunin's good in the cycle and in protecting the puck. One area for improvement in Kunin's game is his first step. Despite all those, the facet I like most about Kunin's game is the level of intensity he brings on every shift. He was an important Penalty Killer for Wisconsin this season and he was blocking shots, working hard in the corners.
Kunin has the potential to be a top-6 center, but ultimately I think he ends up being a strong middle-6 center. Regardless of where his offensive progression takes him, he's absolutely the type of player your would want on your team.
German Rubtsov
The crown jewel of the newly founded Russian U18 organization, Rubtsov is built like a fire hydrant. I will admit that I don't quite know as much about Rubtsov as I'd like. To me he's such a wildcard. He's an unbelievably strong two-way center, one of the best two-way games in the draft class. Additionally, his frame and playmaking skills project him to have a very high potential floor.
I have no intention of getting into the debate for what is a better development path for young Russians, but I think it might be best for Rubtsov to return to Russia to continue his development, similar to the Kuznetsov development path. Rubtsov's overall skillset is pretty underrated, in my view. Part of this is because Rubtsov already plays a very strong "North American" style game.
Rubtsov is a very strong skater and has an extremely high IQ. I like his shot, but I'd like to see him use it more. Rubtsov is a very safe pick, in my mind, about making the NHL.
You may not have noticed him playing at the U18 tournament. That's because the U18 Russian team was suspended from participating at this year's tournament (and had to send the U17 team instead) because the team tested positive for a banned substance - meldonium. I don't think this will cause a drop in draft stock for him. But rather, I think the other prospects stepping up for major tournament performances will put them ahead of him. (I'm not going to speculate any further on that, because we really don't know too much about the situation and I don't think it's fair to judge or speculate based on what happened to a player, especially if he didn't know what was being given to him.)
A play style comparison for Rubtsov is that of Pavel Datsyuk - Rubtsov has a very impressive set of hands and can stick-handle very well all while boasting an incredible two-way game and plays a pass-first type offense. As for projection, I think Rubtsov will be an excellent 2nd line center on a strong, contending team. He's the type of player that really works well matching up against the top lines of opponents and will be a key asset moving forward. There's also the chance he breaks out offensively (he was 2nd in total points on his U18 team) and makes a lot of teams regret not picking him earlier. I know I'm moving the goalposts there, but I think those are the two most likely options when it comes to Rubtsov.
The Pipe-Dreams:
There are possibilities where these players will be available, but this post isn't about the ways in which they would fall to us from a projected top-10 pick, but rather just an overall look at the player.
Alexander Nylander
Nylander's write-up can be found here.
Nylander is leading up to the Draft with some very impressive accolades from this season alone. Nylander was in the top 20 in OHL total scoring and the highest rookie scorer. He won the OHL Rookie of the Year. Nylander also represented Team Sweden at the U18 tournament, where he helped lead them to a silver medal by leading the team in scoring (He was also 5th in scoring at the U18 tournament). Alex has a remarkable shot, skates extremely well - he moves around the ice so well. His balance while handling the puck or avoiding a check is very impressive as well. Nylander's skating is phenomenal, with excellent top end speed and acceleration, accentuated by elite edgework.
Nylander's ability to distribute the puck is excellent as well, and I would argue he is a better play-maker than sniper, despite how good his shot is. He is a threat for offensive chances nearly every time he is on the ice. He's excellent at driving possession and also driving the pace of play. He mainly plays on the Left wing for the Trout, but I believe that if he is to make an impact at the NHL-level, it would be on either wing.
Nylander's main area for improvement is his defensive play. Not that it's a liability, but there is room for improvement. His positional awareness and overall knowledge of the ice help give him the foundation for growth in his defensive game, so that doesn't quite concern me. It just needs some work.
Alexander Nylander's specialty really comes where his speed and fast-tempo offense can be shown, and this is mainly in the transition game. This is what leads me to believe that he will also be on the Devils' radar. The main reasons for this would be his immense skating ability, slick puck distribution skills, strong transition game, and excellent shot. He certainly does have top-6 potential, and possibly a ceiling of being a top-line winger...most likely on the left side. I'd say an interesting style comparison for Nylander would be a Loui Eriksson-type.
Jakob Chychrun
All I'll say before I begin is that if Chychrun falls to the Devils, then it would be a true blessing from the Hockey Gods.
From the conventional stat-watching point of view Chychrun had a relatively disappointing season. For someone who was touted as having #1 D potential last year, the slow season (especially the slow half) didn't help the cause. Also, you'll notice this with similar discussion during Ekblad's draft-eligible season too. The stage was set for both of them and there was a lot of spotlight on them, which makes it easier for folks to pick out flaws and possibly even over-exaggerate them. From a numbers perspective, the second half of the season was a significant improvement for Chychrun, and he had a solid playoff performance to show for it.
Looking at the non-statistical approach (watching the game itself), Chychrun was an absolute beast. He was responsible for just every game situation and would log up to 30 minutes a night for Sarnia. Everything starts with his remarkable skating. Every physical part of his game: his skating, shooting, passing, etc. is borderline elite, if not elite already. He thinks the game at a very high level too. There's still plenty of room for improvement and refinement, but he could step into an NHL role immediately.
The big concern for me about Chychrun is his shoulder injury history. It's given him a good amount of trouble the past few seasons. I don't foresee this proving to be a major problem for him, but I would understand any uncertainty about it. Chychrun would be the absolute perfect defenseman to fall to the Devils, because of not only his immense potential, but also because the organization is rather low on Left-handed defensemen.
Chychrun is an incredibly complete defenseman, a two-way defenseman in every sense of the term. There are many ways he can beat a defenseman while attacking and there are lots of ways he can prevent an opposing forward from shooting or setting up in Chychrun's defensive zone. I'm particularly high on Chychrun so excuse me if these claims are outlandish. I think his floor is a Zach Bogosian type player and his ceiling would be Drew Doughty type player. Ultimately I think he'll end up in the Alex Pietrangelo tier. I think he has franchise potential.
I'll try and update this more content to help give you as best of an idea for each of these players. If you have any suggestions, feedback, or ideas, please let me know! I'd love to hear your thoughts on who you think the Devils should pick with the 11th Overall Selection this draft.
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Thanks for reading!
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